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Thursday, September 21, 2017

NFL week 2 reflections and week 3 pick.

Whatever bug is making the rounds in northern Nevada, I got it, and I got it bad. Started feeling bad last Monday and landed in the ER today. I didn't do the radio show on Tuesday because my voice sounded like hell.

So all I am doing today is week 2 reflections and my week 3  pick.

To recap, I am 2-0 on the season after the Chiefs held on last week at home to cover the 5 1/2 point spread.  On to week 3.

The most interesting thing(s) on the board this week, in my opinion, is the number of home underdogs.  When the week opened there were ten (!) home dogs on the board.

I'm not a big fan of betting on road favorites early in the season. Later in the year a bad team will be a home underdog because they are a bad team, with a bad record to show for how poorly they've played. So, usually they are not highly motivated to play well in front of a lot of empty seats. That's the time to bet against a home dog.

Early in the season however, home dogs, even if they aren't a very good team, still have a theoretical shot at a decent season and use the fact that they aren't favored at home to motivate themselves to play over their heads. As a result, even if they don't win, they often cover. So I don't usually bet on road favorites until later in the year.

I do like to bet against home favorites early in the year, especially when I feel like they're being overvalued by the bookmakers. And that's the type of game that I'm going to bet on this week. My play is going to be on the Houston Texans getting 13 and 1/2 points on the road at New England. Here's my analysis.

Yes, Houston is starting a rookie quarterback. But DeSaun Watson is very athletic and the Texans run the ball very well. This does not bode well for a Patriots defense that is giving up almost eight yards per play on average. The Texans also have a great defense (they were ranked number one last year overall) and the Patriots have a lot of injuries on offense. This  all adds up to the 13 1/2 points being way too high a number for my liking. I look for the Patriots to win, but the Texans to keep it close.  Take the Texans and the points.

Good Luck everybody.

Thursday, September 14, 2017

Blackjack results, Friday 9/16

I got a chance to play some Blackjack on Friday night at my favorite low limit Casino. Only had $50 on me, which is what I bought him with, so it's a good thing that it was a $2 minimum table. I usually make my base bet $5 but tonight I made it just $2.

Played for about half an hour, and the dealer was very hot, at least at first. She ran everyone off at the table, except for me,  after about 10 minutes. I enjoy playing one-on-one versus the dealer, but it is a real quick way to get fingered as a card counter when you are the only one at the table.

Because of this, I basically just flat bet one hand at $2. The count never went very high anyway, so I didn't feel too bad.  Walked away down $10. No big deal but one thing happened that I want to talk about.

Towards the end of my play, I hit a 14 vs. a ten, and busted.  When I flipped the cards over and they (accidentally) landed on top of each other, so that you could only see the face of one of the cards (a four).

Now the proper thing for the dealer to do would be to spread the cards so that the face, and value, of both cards could be clearly seen. This dealer didn't do that she just picked up the cards and put them on the discard tray. 

This tells me that the dealer is sloppy and that the pit boss(es)  don't care.  Not exposing the cards properly is something that drives Surveillance nuts. It keeps them from accurately counting down a deck. Now since I was playing just one hand at the table minimum, I was sure no one was watching, but dealers are creatures of habit.  If they do something wrong once, then they do it that way most of the time.

If you see this happen when you are playing it may be something you can use to your advantage. If you know what I mean. Just something to think about........

NFL Week 1 reflections and early week 2 pick.

After reviewing last week's games, and looking at the stats I have come to the following conclusions:

1. The following teams looked very good (on the road) in week one:
Kansas City Chiefs, the
Oakland (Las Vegas) Raiders and the Baltimore Ravens.

2. These teams looked very bad (at home no less):
San Francisco 49ers the Washington Redskins and the Houston Texans

3. The Dallas Cowboys looked  good, but they were at home and facing a New York Giants team without their best player. I'd like to see what Dallas does on the road before pronouncing them "very"good. The Broncos, Vikings, Packers and Rams all looked good at home also.

Now the problem with what I just told you, is that all of the bookmakers saw the same thing that I did. As a result, they adjusted their opening lines accordingly.

Now The Bookies are not perfect, of course, and sometimes they over or under value a team based on what they did last week. This is especially true early in the season before any major trends have become apparent.

When the line comes out on Tuesday I like to identify those teams that I feel are either under or overvalued and make a play on them. And this week I think I've discovered a good one. I actually identified it on Tuesday and would have posted it yesterday, but I have a lot on my plate right now, medically, so you're not getting this until Thursday afternoon. Sorry I'll try and do better next week.

The game I am talking about  is the Kansas City Chiefs -5 1/2 points versus the Philadelphia Eagles in Kansas City. Here is my analysis

Kansas City opened the season with a very impressive win against the New England Patriots in Boston. On Sunday, the Eagles beat a very bad team, the Washington Redskins, on the road. This week is Kansas City's home opener, and I feel like they will be very motivated to continue playing well. The line opened at Kansas City - 5 and a half points, and I feel that is very cheap.

Especially when you consider that Philadelphia is playing its second straight game on the road and that AFC teams have done well against NFC teams over the past few years especially at home. And since Kansas City played last Thursday, they've  had three extra days to prepare  for this match-up. Lay the five and a half points and take the Chiefs.

Good luck everybody.

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Show update September 12th 2017

I'm happy to report that we had a great show on Tuesday, yesterday, with noted gaming consultant Thomas Gallagher as our guest.

The hour long show really flew by, and we didn't get to discuss as much with Mr. Gallagher as I wanted to.

Here is a link to the podcast of the show. Mr. Gallagher made a special offer to anyone who emailed him saying that they heard him on the show, so listen to the podcast for his special offer then you can email him and get a special deal on his gaming manuals. Just copy and paste this link into your browser to go to the FTP page for downloads of all of the podcasts of Casino Confidential.

ftp://shows.americamatters.us/Show/Casino%20Confidential/

Also, I want to remind everyone that I will be posting my NFL week 2 pic of the week on Friday.

Have a great day everyone.

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

NFL pick update and show update for Tuesday September 12th

Hi everybody,

First I want to update all of you who are interested in my prognostication prediction for Week 1 of the NFL season. My pic was Dallas Cowboys minus 4 points on Sunday night and I'm happy to report that they won and covered! So those of you who bet and won based on  my advice, enjoy your winnings!

Remember, I will be posting a NFL pick of the week every week, usually on Friday or Saturday, throughout the regular season. Below you will find a way to subscribe to my blog, so that you will get notified every time I update. My pic will always be free, as it is intended for entertainment purposes only.

Now on to the show. I am happy to announce that I have a great guest for my show today, his name is Thomas Gallagher and he is a noted Blackjack and poker coach. He also has a craps system that we will be discussing at great length.

Listen live in the Reno area on KCKQ 1180 AM AT 4PM Pacific. If you live out of the area you can stream it live at http://amm.streamon.fm at 2300 GMT. And the podcast will be available later at
ftp://shows.americamatters.us/Show/Casino%20Confidential/

AND it's a Giveaway Tuesday! I will be giving away a free range pass for 2 to our terrific sponsor, Reno Guns and Range, to the first caller at 844-790-8255. As an added bonus, Mr Gallagher will be giving away some of his ebooks to anyone who emails him. He will provide the email address for his giveaway during the show.

Have a great day everybody.

Saturday, September 9, 2017

Welcome back to me, and NFL Week 1 pick

Okay, so most of you know, or may know, I have leukemia. I've been dealing with this for about a year and it finally got bad enough that I decided to start chemotherapy. The type of leukemia that I have, chronic lymphocytic leukemia or CLL, made the chemotherapy treatment optional, so I treated it is optional and didn't do it until I felt out of other options.

Anyway long story short I started 2 weeks ago, felt like crap for a week, and now I feel better than I have in over a year.

So I'm back to posting on my blog, and hopefully this time it'll be a lot more regular and hopefully better. I had a suggestion from someone I know that I do a weekly NFL pick, since I fancy myself a decent handicapper, in addition to being a surveillance expert.

So in that vein, I've decided to release My Week 1 pick today Saturday the 10th at 8 p.m. Pacific time. My pic is the Dallas Cowboys minus 4 Points to win at home versus the New York Giants. Here is my analysis:

The line opened at Cowboys -6, but heavy action on the Giants and uncertainty over Ezekiel Elliott's suspension pushed it all the way down to -4, which is where it stands tonight, Saturday night, at my favorite casino Sportsbook. We now know Zeke will play in Week 1, but Giants WR Odell Beckham is questionable.

The Giants swept the season series last year, and are 3-0 in their last three meetings with their NFC Eastern division rival  and 5-0 against the spread over their last five encounters. My feeling is that this makes the Cowboys highly motivated to get a season-opening win versus a division opponent at home. I think having to give up only four points at home is cheap, so my pic is the Dallas Cowboys.

My plan is to do an NFL pick of the week every Saturday from now through the rest of the season. I will then blog post again on Tuesday or Wednesday with the results.

Good luck everybody.

Monday, August 21, 2017

Blackjack update and show preview

Hi everyone. I've been sick so I haven't posted in a while. I have been feeling a little better the last couple of days so I will post a gambling update and a show preview for tomorrow Tuesday August 22nd.

Remember Casino Confidential airs live in the Reno area at 4 p.m. on Tuesdays on 1180 AM KCKQ radio. You can also listen to it stream over the internet at americamatters.us or on the TuneIn Radio app.

So tonight, Monday, I went to my favorite low limit blackjack tables, at an unnamed Casino in the city of Sparks. I played at a $3 minimum, single deck table, bought in for $50 and left with $20. Oh well, you can't win every time.

I mostly flat bet $5 a hand, lost my first few hands and never got up at all. I was able to play for almost an hour on that $50. I never got into a high positive count or Ace rich deck where I felt like I could confidently increase my bet, so I didn't.

I did  had a situation where I felt like varying from basic strategy involving a pair of sevens against a dealers ten. Basic strategy for the single deck game, says that you should split sevens all the way up to and including a 7 for a dealer up card. That I understand and fully agree with. Where I disagree with basic strategy is what you do against an 8, 9, 10 or Ace for an up card.

Basic says to hit versus an 8, 9, or Ace up but stand when the dealer has a ten up. You are in a real bad situation here any way you slice it. Two 7's vs a dealer's 10 is just a really bad hand. The fact that it is two sevens really doesn't matter to me, I just look at it as a hard 14 which you are obviously always going to hit against the 10 up.

So I did hit, and busted. The dealer ended up having a 10 in the hole so I would have lost either way. But it made me think about it the number of difficult to remember decisions that you need to make to master basic strategy.

So that's what we're going to talk about on tomorrow show. The most common mis- played hands by the average player, and the hands that are difficult to remember when you're trying to memorize basic strategy.

So tune in tomorrow on 1180am at 4 p.m. for Casino Confidential.

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

Show update

Had a great show today, basically  talking about what it takes to be a better blackjack player.  I will post the podcast link ASAP.

I also want to tell  all my readers  about this great new discount travel card.   Register for Free for a $200 VIP Card good at selected hotels  and resorts worldwide.  Did I mention it's free ?   Go to www.gurufast.com/james

Monday, August 14, 2017

Great new show tomorrow!

I have a great new Casino Confidential show planned for tomorrow, Tuesday August 15th:

Casino Gaming 101. Intro to the philosophy of gambling, an  uncommon, common sense approach. You WILL learn how to lose less and win more.

Listen live in the Reno area on KCKQ 1180 AM AT 4PM Pacific. Streaming live at http://amm.streamon.fm at 2300 GMT.

AND it's a Giveaway Tuesday! I will be giving away a free range pass for 2 to our terrific sponsor, Reno Guns and Range, to the first caller at 844-790-8255.

Thursday, August 10, 2017

Gambling report, Thursday August 10th.

I've decided to start reporting on my wins and losses when I gamble here in Reno. Hopefully it will teach some of the newer players out there reading this blog about what it's like to live in Vegas or Reno and enjoy gambling from time to time.

So today I went to a casino in Sparks Nevada, which I'm not going to name, and played a little blackjack. I like this casino cuz they have low limit tables usually a $2 or $3 minimum with a $200 max.

I bought in for $200, half green half red; put the green in my pocket and sat at a full table playing in the third spot. My bet range was from $20 to $30 per hand. And of course I was counting and tracking Aces. This was a single deck game with a 3-2 payout on blackjack.  (I refused to play at a 6 to 5 game.) Because the table was full there were only two rounds of play before a new shuffle.

I played for about half an hour and walked away $50 ahead. I would have had more but on my second to last hand I lost with two tens, when the dealer did a 6 card draw to a 21. Oh well, that's why they call it gambling.

I think I did a pretty good job of masking my play, to anyone in surveillance that happened to be watching me it probably look like I was doing a modified winning progression, as I sometimes added $5 to a winning bet. I did very from basic strategy once when the count was -7, the dealer had a face up and I had an 8 & 3.  Instead of doubling down, like basic strategy dictates you should do, I just scratched for a hit, and sure enough drew a 2. My next hit card was a 6 giving me a total of 19. The Dealer's hole card was a 7, so I actually won the hand. A good example of how counting cards can help you with your hit and stand decisions.

Wednesday, August 9, 2017

The top misplayed hand in blackjack

Today we're going to discuss what I consider to be the top misplayed hand by your average blackjack player. And that is a hard 12 versus dealers 3 for an up card.

A hard 12 is obviously not ever a good hand to get dealt, and whether you're playing single-deck, double deck or a shoe game the odds are against you. Your expected return for standing is negative 25% while you're expected return for hitting is negative 23%. Not a good situation either way, but if you're playing accurate basic strategy you really should hit. In the long run it will make a difference. A slight difference I know but a difference none the less.

However if you're counting cards, you might have a bit of an insight. If your true count is negative then you know that there are more small value and neutral value cards remaining in the deck or shoe then 10 value cards. At this point you should hit without hesitation.

Playing perfect basic strategy is all about the percentages and being consistent. You're not always going to win in this situation but you should still be using the mathematics of basic strategy to help you get any edge that you can.

Tuesday, August 8, 2017

First show in the bag!

Today I had my first Casino confidential show on KCKQ 1180am in Reno Nevada. I will put a link to the FTP site where you can download it if you'd like to listen to it. Okay so maybe I'm not the most professional and Polished radio talk show host you've ever heard, but at least I'm trying.

Bill Zender was an excellent first guest. He is a very professional and Polished speaker and knows more about casinos than most people have ever learned. Be sure and check out his website at
www.BillZender.com to find out what he's up to, purchase some of his books, or see his YouTube videos.

On a sad note, no-one called in to win our free giveaway prize. We were giving away range passes to Reno Guns and Range, located on Market Street in Reno Nevada right behind the Harley-Davidson dealership. Their phone number is 775-826-2626.

We will try again next week to give away a couple of free passes. Are phone number for the giveaway is toll free 844-790 8255. Call Ian next Tuesday from 4 to 5 and you could win.

I will post a regular blog entry later in the week, don't forget to subscribe and or check back often.

Have a good day everybody,

Jim

Link for MP3
ftp://shows.americamatters.us/Show/Casino%20Confidential/

New show!

I am pleased to announce that I finally have gotten my own show on 1180 AM radio station KCKQ in Reno Nevada. The name of the show is Casino Confidential, and it will be about all things having to do with casinos and gambling with an emphasis on technology, surveillance and blackjack.

The show premieres this afternoon, Tuesday, August 8th at 4 p.m. Pacific time, which is 11 p.m. (2300) GMT. In the Reno area you can tune in to 1180 a.m., or you can listen live on the internet at
http://amm.streamon.fm

I'm especially excited to announce that my first guest will be world renown Casino consultant Bill Zenger. Bill and I will be discussing the recent blackjack exploits of professional poker player Phil Ivey, plus what Russian hackers have been up to with slot machines.

I will post a link on this blog later once I have an FTP site setup to download previous episodes. I will also eventually have the show on Apple iTunes and on Podbean.

We will also get into other table games, slot machines and sports betting. And of course we will be talking about all of the scams and techniques used to try and cheat the house.

I will also be taking questions over the phone to anyone who wants to call in. The phone number is 844-790-8255, which is a toll free number. You can also Twitter questions or comments to me, my Twitter handle is @casinologger.  I will also soon have a Facebook show page up and running.

So be sure to listen in this afternoon at 4 p.m. if you can.

Friday, August 4, 2017

Eldorado casino remote

Just got done helping my fellow radio host, Rick Parr, do his show, "Talking Sports" live from Brew Brothers at the Eldorado casino in downtown Reno.  We broadcast live on 1180 AM KCKQ, and stream it on Tune-In Radio and at americamatters.us

I also wanted to mention the great Blackjack tournament that the Eldorado has at their Casino. It’s called Blackjack Madness, and it's held every Thursday from 5 pm until 7:30 pm with 2 final tables and 8 winners. The Semi-Finals and Finals will take place at 8 pm and 8:30.  Located on the Eldorado Casino Floor, near Bar Centro.  

It's a $1,750 Blackjack Tournament. For a $20 Buy-In, New Bronze and Silver  Members can buy into up to 5 rounds of play, including a semi-final and final round. While Gold, President and Chairman  Members receive limited free entry.  Chairman Members also get a free buffet!

Stop by the Casino Promotions Center for complete details, or call 1-800-281-0524 or in Nevada (775) 785-8545

Saturday, July 29, 2017

Update!

Hi everyone. I haven't been doing much blogging recently, because I've started being on the radio on 1180am kckq in Reno Nevada.

But I will be back soon blogging and also podcasting. Stay tuned, as they say in radio land. And check out this link to the podcasting Factory that I am going to be associated with.

https://www.gurufast.com/gurufast-announces-podcast-factory