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Friday, December 22, 2017

Week 16 pick

My week 16 pick is the San Francisco 49ers, playing at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars.  Here is my analysis.

This is one of those late-season games where a good team is favored on the road and the lesser team is getting points at home. The home team got off to a terrible start and has no shot at the playoffs, but they've been playing better recently. Meanwhile the road favorite almost has their division wrapped up, has already clinched a playoff spot and has not played that well on the road this year.

It has been almost a month since the Jaguars were on the road, and when they were last on the road, they lost. Since then they've won three straight at home and looked very good doing it. And now they're back on the road and favored by four points at my favorite book. This one smells like an upset.

The other factor in this is that if the Titans, who play at home in one of the early games this week, have beaten the Rams prior to this game starting, then the Jaguars will have already clinched their division.  At that point you would really have to question the Jaguars motivation for playing well in this game. 

Meanwhile, San Francisco has won four of their last five with their new quarterback Janeane Garofalo (SIC), and they are very motivated to finish the season on a high note. They may have found their future franchise quarterback, if they can re-sign him.

The 49ers are on roll and are going to want to finish the season well. Getting 4 or 4.5 points, depending on the book that you bet at, is just a bonus. Bet the 49ers Sunday.

Sunday, December 17, 2017

Week 15 pick - playing a hunch.

I'm playing hunch this week, as it can't get any worse. After starting the season 5-0, I have gone something like 2-9 ATS since. (It's too depressing to do the actual math).

My pick this week is a real long-shot. I am taking the Cleveland browns at home against their hatred division rival, the Baltimore Ravens. The game is in Cleveland, so of course the winless Browns are a home dog, getting 7 or 7.5 depending on the book.

The Ravens are coming off a loss to an even bigger division rival (for them), the Steelers and may be in for a letdown. The Ravens played a very physical opponent last week and may be a little more sore than usual. The Browns, of course,  would love to get their first win of the season here.  If you take them to win outright (no spread) you get +270.

I know it's a long shot, but I am going to drop 20 on the Browns here to win outright. I just have a feeling that this might be there week. Good luck everybody

Saturday, December 9, 2017

Week 14 pick.

Okay, so I lost again last week. Let's not rehash it. Let's just get onto picking a winner for this coming week.

The game I set my sights on will be the Sunday night game between the Seattle Seahawks and Jacksonville Jaguars. The Seahawk, on the road, are getting two and a half points at my favorite book. I think they're going to win outright, so the two and a half points is just a bonus. Here is my analysis.

Both teams are 8-4.  The Seahawks pretty much need to win out to have any shot at winning the division, which would give them at least one home field game during the playoffs. Home field advantage is very important to the Seahawks, especially in the playoffs, so they will be highly motivated to get this win. A loss here would almost guarantee them of playing a wild-card game on the road, if they even make the playoffs at all.

On to the trends. Seattle is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record.  Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record but just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a win. Seattle is also 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. But the Seahawks Sunday.

Sunday, December 3, 2017

Week 13 pick

This one  is a no brainer. The Chicago Bears are taking on the San Francisco 49ers today, in Chicago, and are only having to give up 3 points.

Next to Cleveland, the 49ers are the worst team in the league. There's no way they'll be able to keep this anywhere close to within a touchdown, even if they play their new quarterback.

The 49ers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in December, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC teams  and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Bears are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December. There's no way San Francisco gets their second win of the Season here. It shouldn't even be close. Bet the Bears on Sunday.

Good Luck everybody.

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Betting parlays and round robins and more on home dogs

ln the last post I introduced you to the concept of betting on home team underdogs, which can be very profitable for the amateur handicapper. I listed three real world examples in games that are taking place this week. Let's take a closer look at each game and how I think they should be played.

The home dogs this week are the Bills +9 versus the Patriots, the Cardinals +6 versus the Rams and on Monday night the Bengals +7 vs the Steelers. The first thing I always like to do is look at the record of both teams against the spread in several different scenarios throughout the current season.

This season, against the spread in the home dog scenario, Buffalo is 1-1,  Arizona is 2-1-1 and the Cincinnati Bengals have not played a game yet as a home dog.  Not a lot to chew on there, so to speak, but we still have to look at the visiting team record as a favorite on the road. Los Angeles is 1-1, New England is 3-1, and Pittsburgh is 2-3.

Now I like to look at all of the teams record against division opponents against the spread. Both Buffalo and New England are 1-1 in division games. The Cardinals are 1-2-1 and the Rams are 1-2. Meanwhile Cincinnati is 2 -2 2, and the Steelers are 2-1.

As you can see, division games are very competitive. The current top two seeds in the AFC, the Steelers and the Patriots, each of whom have 9-2 records straight up, each have one loss against the spread in division play. These are really hard fought games and getting points often make the difference in winning your bet. So how should you bet these games? 

If you bet each straight up (-110) you would be in 33 units, with s potential win of 30 units on a total cash out of 63 units if you hit all three. Two wins would give you a 9u profit from a 42u cash out. Only one win = 12u loss/21u cash rout. Is there a better way to bet these games? Let's do the math.

Your investment is 33 units. You will  cash out either 63, 42, 21 or 0. This is a percentage win/loss of 90.9, 27.2, -36.3 and 0, respectively.

Now let's parlay all three teams together in a single bet. A straight-up three-team parlay pays 6 to 1. The great thing about a 3-team parlay is that you bet less, but can win more. If, and that's a big if, all 3 of your bets turn out to be winners. So let's bet 10 units at 6 to 1. You will either cash out 70u or zero.
The win percentage is either 700% or 0. Lower risk, and higher potential reward, but it's harder than it looks. If 3 team parlays were easy to hit, bookmakers would be out of business. I've gone entire season without hitting one.

Now let's do a round-robin parlay where each bet is parlayed with another single bet for a total of 3 individual wagers. (Bet A is parlayed with bet B,  B with C and C with  A.) So each wager is a two-team parlay, which pays 13 to 5. All 3 bets in a round-robin parlay are for the same amount, in this case we will bet them for 10 units each, which would pay off 36u for each winning parlay segment. So for your 30 unit investment you will cash out either 108 units, 36 units or 0 units. That's a return of 300%, 20% or 0%.

When you crunch the numbers, I feel that the three team round-robin parlay offers a lot more value for your money, then any other type of bet. Because you only have to win two out of the three games to cash out, it's much easier than a standard 3 team parlay. But you can only lose one of your three games. It's a higher risk then betting three individual game straight up, a much lower risk then a 3-team parlay and a return that is better than one but not quite as good as the other. I look at it as the best of both worlds. And it works great when playing a system, such as betting on home team underdogs.

Okay, this post has gotten a little long and had way too much math in it, so I'll cut it off here. On Friday, I will post my picks of the week, so be sure and check back at that time.

Good Luck everybody.

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

Home dogs - a winning opportunity?

One of the things a skilled handicapper should be on the lookout for is the home team  underdog. Especially when it's a division opponent. These games are automatic rivalries with a healthy portion of ill will usually thrown in.

At this point in the season, the home dog is usually playing sub .500 ball and the favored team is usually headed for the playoffs. The home dog is motivated  by pride and/or professionalism to prove that they are better than their record indicates. And what better way to prove that than by kicking the ass of the division leader?

So this week, we have some real doozies when it comes to games with home team underdogs facing a division opponent. Here is my analysis.

Sunday starts with the Bills getting 9 points at home against the Patriots, who are tied with the Steelers for the best record in the conference. In a late game, the Cardinals are getting 7 points at home against the division-leading Rams. The week concludes with the Monday night game featuring the Bengals getting 6 points at home against those Steelers.

All three of these home dogs probably need to win out to have a shot at a wild card slot. The favorites need to keep winning to improve or maintain their playoff seeding.

So, how should you bet these 3 games? Read my next blog post on Friday and I'll tell you!

Until then, good luck everybody.

Monday, November 27, 2017

Great video on statistics and odds.

Excellent video. All gamblers need to understand this concept.

Click here to watch. Watch it twice, or until you understand it.

Something is fishy in KC and week 12 results.

Well, I went 1-1 last weekend  winning with the Titans covering  by one point and then losing big time on the Chiefs, as they continue to self destruct on live TV.

Something is seriously wrong in Kansas City. After a 5-0 start , including a terrific season opening win in New England, the Chefs (SIC) have dropped 5 of 6, and looked like garbage doing it. And with the same personnel as they started the season with. Their poor play can't be blamed on injures or key position players missing time.

Same players, same coaches, and same schemes are having totally different results, and coach Andy Reid doesn't appear to have any answers. Mark my words, and you heard it here first, if this team continues to suck ass and finishes 6-10 or 7-9, Reid will pay with his job.

So I promise, no more betting on the Chefs the rest of the season. I will have my week 13 picks out by Thursday morning I swear. Until then, good luck everybody.

Sunday, November 26, 2017

Week 12 winning picks!

Hi everybody, sorry to be so late with this post things have been a little busy for me. Once again I'm going to do two picks this week, which I am probably going to continue to do until the end of the season.

This is an interesting week in the NFL with some of the highest point spreads seen yet this year. The Patriots, Eagles and Steelers are all favored by two touchdowns or more. In-wall all three of those teams could easily win and cover, I don't see a lot of value in laying that many points, so I'll be staying away from those games.

My first pick this week is a road favorite. I'm taking the Tennessee Titans - 3 on the road versus the Indianapolis Colts. Here is my analysis.

The Colts are 3-7, Andrew Luck will not be seen until next year, and they have nothing left to play for. They're really not even as good as their record indicates, with their three wins coming against the horrible 49ers and Browns, and the injury ravaged Texans. They also lost to the Titans earlier this season 36-22 in Tennessee.

Meanwhile, the Titans are 6-4 and in the thick of the playoff hunt. They should be highly motivated to get the season sweep here, especially since Indianapolis has owned them recently width Andrew Luck at quarterback. So this is kind of a revenge game for them as well as one that can put them in a better position to make the playoffs. I think they easily cover the 3 point spread here, so take the Titans.

In my second game, I am going to take a heavily-favored home team just not one favored by double-digits. Only 9 points!

The Kansas City Chiefs have lost four of their last five and are in desperate need of a win. If they want to make a serious playoff run, they need to start this week and playing the Buffalo Bills at home is the answer they're looking for.

This opponent comes at a perfect time for them.The Bills have a terrible run defense and Kansas City will use that to their advantage. The Kansas City offense always plays better when they have a balanced offenseive attack, and I expect them to easily cover the nine point spread. Take the Chiefs.

Good Luck everybody.

Monday, November 20, 2017

Fear and loosing in Reno

Well it was another lost weekend at the Sportsbook. I lost on both my twin NFL picks as I had the Bears to win outright at +130, and the Chiefs, who failed to even win, let alone cover the 10.5 point spread against the NY Giants.

If I hadn't had Navy to cover against Notre Dame on Saturday, I'd be broke. As it is, I'm not broke, only badly bent. But I need to get back on the winning track in the NFL, so look for a guaranteed winner from me when I release my pic on Thursday.

See you then, and good luck.

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Week 10 recap and week 11 twin picks. Back on the winning track.

OK, we got a winner!! I had the 49ers +2.5 over the hapless NY Giants and the Niners came through to get their first win. Woo Hoo!!! I am now 6-3 on the season! Let's keep it going this week with another win. Or two?

One win is going to come from the Kansas City Chiefs, who this week take on those same hapless Giants, this time playing at home in New York. Now Kansas City is giving up 10.5 points, which seems like an awful lot to give up for a road team, but there is a method to my madness.

Kansas City has lost three of its last four games, and is coming off a bye. I feel like they will be highly motivated to get back on the winning track as they head for the playoffs. They have had an extra week to prepare, and Andy Reid has the best record among active NFL coaches coming off of a bye week. The Chiefs are going to want to not only win, but dominate the Giants. That should actually be pretty easy to do.

The Giants look dead and lifeless. Right now, they are as painful to watch as a school bus fire with your own kids in the bus. I don't look for them to win another game this year, unless one of their opponents decides to throw 6 interceptions or do something equally stupid. 10.5 points is not too much to give in this case, I would still take the Chiefs even at 14.5. The Giants do not have either the players, the coaching talent, or the overall team attitude to even keep this game close.
Take the Chiefs and lay the points.

Another game that I'm going to recommend you play is the Detroit Lions at the Chicago Bears. The Bears are home underdogs in this one, getting 3 or 3.5 points depending on the book.

I always like home underdogs against division rivals, they have a knack of winning outright if not just covering. I feel that the Lions are actually a bit of a fraud, and are being overrated by both the bookies and the betting public. Chicago is 4-0 ATS as a home underdog this season, while the Lions are 1 - 2 in division games. I am going to bet the Bears on the moneyline at +130 as I expect them to win outright.

Good luck everybody.

Saturday, November 11, 2017

Week 10 pick

Sorry I haven't been much in the mood for posting g content the past two weeks. Personal stuff.

I do have a week 10 pick. And it is a wild one. It's the battle of two terrible teams, the 1-7 NY Giants vs the 0-9 SF 49ers. The loser will have the inside track on getting the first pick in the next draft.

I am picking the 49ers to win here, or at least cover, as they are getting 2.5 points at even money.

The Giants are a hot mess, having lost two in a row after posting their only win of the season. Their problems are well documented and numerous,  and they are on the road on the far side of the country from their home base. A team this bad should never be a road favorite.

The 'Niners should be highly motivated to get their first win here at home. The 2.5 points (at even money) are a gift. Take the points and the 49ers Sunday.

Sunday, November 5, 2017

No pick this week.

Sorry, everybody. I've been really sick this week, had a chemotherapy infusion on Wednesday & Thursday and haven't even looked at the cards this week.

See you next week. I'll try to have my free pick out by Wednesday.

Wednesday, November 1, 2017

New podcasts available

New Casino Confidential show podcasts are now online and available for download. Click here and look for shows posted on 10/24 & 10/31.

Saturday, October 28, 2017

Week 8 pick

Sorry about the lateness of this post, but I've been dealing with more medical issues.

As a result I'm just going to post my pic here, without the usual accompanying reasons that I'm making the pic. You're just going to have to trust me.

This week I'm taking the Atlanta Falcons on the road against the New York Jets. I made my pick several days ago and got it at minus 5.5, the line has moved to -6.5 as I write this now. I still think it's a good bet anything under a touchdown I feel like the Falcons will cover with no problem.

Good Luck everybody.