Whatever bug is making the rounds in northern Nevada, I got it, and I got it bad. Started feeling bad last Monday and landed in the ER today. I didn't do the radio show on Tuesday because my voice sounded like hell.
So all I am doing today is week 2 reflections and my week 3 pick.
To recap, I am 2-0 on the season after the Chiefs held on last week at home to cover the 5 1/2 point spread. On to week 3.
The most interesting thing(s) on the board this week, in my opinion, is the number of home underdogs. When the week opened there were ten (!) home dogs on the board.
I'm not a big fan of betting on road favorites early in the season. Later in the year a bad team will be a home underdog because they are a bad team, with a bad record to show for how poorly they've played. So, usually they are not highly motivated to play well in front of a lot of empty seats. That's the time to bet against a home dog.
Early in the season however, home dogs, even if they aren't a very good team, still have a theoretical shot at a decent season and use the fact that they aren't favored at home to motivate themselves to play over their heads. As a result, even if they don't win, they often cover. So I don't usually bet on road favorites until later in the year.
I do like to bet against home favorites early in the year, especially when I feel like they're being overvalued by the bookmakers. And that's the type of game that I'm going to bet on this week. My play is going to be on the Houston Texans getting 13 and 1/2 points on the road at New England. Here's my analysis.
Yes, Houston is starting a rookie quarterback. But DeSaun Watson is very athletic and the Texans run the ball very well. This does not bode well for a Patriots defense that is giving up almost eight yards per play on average. The Texans also have a great defense (they were ranked number one last year overall) and the Patriots have a lot of injuries on offense. This all adds up to the 13 1/2 points being way too high a number for my liking. I look for the Patriots to win, but the Texans to keep it close. Take the Texans and the points.
Good Luck everybody.