My week 16 pick is the San Francisco 49ers, playing at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Here is my analysis.
This is one of those late-season games where a good team is favored on the road and the lesser team is getting points at home. The home team got off to a terrible start and has no shot at the playoffs, but they've been playing better recently. Meanwhile the road favorite almost has their division wrapped up, has already clinched a playoff spot and has not played that well on the road this year.
It has been almost a month since the Jaguars were on the road, and when they were last on the road, they lost. Since then they've won three straight at home and looked very good doing it. And now they're back on the road and favored by four points at my favorite book. This one smells like an upset.
The other factor in this is that if the Titans, who play at home in one of the early games this week, have beaten the Rams prior to this game starting, then the Jaguars will have already clinched their division. At that point you would really have to question the Jaguars motivation for playing well in this game.
Meanwhile, San Francisco has won four of their last five with their new quarterback Janeane Garofalo (SIC), and they are very motivated to finish the season on a high note. They may have found their future franchise quarterback, if they can re-sign him.
The 49ers are on roll and are going to want to finish the season well. Getting 4 or 4.5 points, depending on the book that you bet at, is just a bonus. Bet the 49ers Sunday.