ln the last post I introduced you to the concept of betting on home team underdogs, which can be very profitable for the amateur handicapper. I listed three real world examples in games that are taking place this week. Let's take a closer look at each game and how I think they should be played.
The home dogs this week are the Bills +9 versus the Patriots, the Cardinals +6 versus the Rams and on Monday night the Bengals +7 vs the Steelers. The first thing I always like to do is look at the record of both teams against the spread in several different scenarios throughout the current season.
This season, against the spread in the home dog scenario, Buffalo is 1-1, Arizona is 2-1-1 and the Cincinnati Bengals have not played a game yet as a home dog. Not a lot to chew on there, so to speak, but we still have to look at the visiting team record as a favorite on the road. Los Angeles is 1-1, New England is 3-1, and Pittsburgh is 2-3.
Now I like to look at all of the teams record against division opponents against the spread. Both Buffalo and New England are 1-1 in division games. The Cardinals are 1-2-1 and the Rams are 1-2. Meanwhile Cincinnati is 2 -2 2, and the Steelers are 2-1.
As you can see, division games are very competitive. The current top two seeds in the AFC, the Steelers and the Patriots, each of whom have 9-2 records straight up, each have one loss against the spread in division play. These are really hard fought games and getting points often make the difference in winning your bet. So how should you bet these games?
If you bet each straight up (-110) you would be in 33 units, with s potential win of 30 units on a total cash out of 63 units if you hit all three. Two wins would give you a 9u profit from a 42u cash out. Only one win = 12u loss/21u cash rout. Is there a better way to bet these games? Let's do the math.
Your investment is 33 units. You will cash out either 63, 42, 21 or 0. This is a percentage win/loss of 90.9, 27.2, -36.3 and 0, respectively.
Now let's parlay all three teams together in a single bet. A straight-up three-team parlay pays 6 to 1. The great thing about a 3-team parlay is that you bet less, but can win more. If, and that's a big if, all 3 of your bets turn out to be winners. So let's bet 10 units at 6 to 1. You will either cash out 70u or zero.
The win percentage is either 700% or 0. Lower risk, and higher potential reward, but it's harder than it looks. If 3 team parlays were easy to hit, bookmakers would be out of business. I've gone entire season without hitting one.
Now let's do a round-robin parlay where each bet is parlayed with another single bet for a total of 3 individual wagers. (Bet A is parlayed with bet B, B with C and C with A.) So each wager is a two-team parlay, which pays 13 to 5. All 3 bets in a round-robin parlay are for the same amount, in this case we will bet them for 10 units each, which would pay off 36u for each winning parlay segment. So for your 30 unit investment you will cash out either 108 units, 36 units or 0 units. That's a return of 300%, 20% or 0%.
When you crunch the numbers, I feel that the three team round-robin parlay offers a lot more value for your money, then any other type of bet. Because you only have to win two out of the three games to cash out, it's much easier than a standard 3 team parlay. But you can only lose one of your three games. It's a higher risk then betting three individual game straight up, a much lower risk then a 3-team parlay and a return that is better than one but not quite as good as the other. I look at it as the best of both worlds. And it works great when playing a system, such as betting on home team underdogs.
Okay, this post has gotten a little long and had way too much math in it, so I'll cut it off here. On Friday, I will post my picks of the week, so be sure and check back at that time.
Good Luck everybody.
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