Okay, I've had a lot of people ask me what is the secret to my success. I'm off to a 5 and 0 start this year in NFL free picks, and this is not the first year that I've had pretty good success against the bookmakers. And by the way, every free pic that I release is a pic that I made a play on myself. I put my money where my mouth is.
I've had several people ask me if I'm using some kind of a system, in the answer to that is no. What I'm using is called common sense. Let me explain.
There are certain conditions in which I feel the betting line posted by oddsmakers gets distorted because of various factors. I like to identify where those conditions exist, and how they may have affected the line. Having done that I like to make plays where I feel there is a better than usual value to the pic that you make, whether you were laying points are getting points.
When I take a favorite I like to play games where the line is "cheap", or where the favorite is not favored by as much as I think they should be. When I take an underdog, I do so where I think that the favorite has been overvalued by the bookmakers.
Here are some of those conditions and situations that I like to look for:
1. Home team underdogs, especially against a divisional opponent. They cover more often than you might think.
2. Teams coming off a short week, long week or a bye. (A short week is where one of the teams played on Monday night the weekend previous. A long week is when one of the teams played on Thursday night the previous week.) Teams that are well rested are usually healthier and better prepared and usually have an advantage.
3. The Thursday night game is also a short week for both teams, but just as any games played in London, it offer the same challenges to both teams equally. Usually the better coached team has an advantage here. I usually stay away from these games though.
4. Teams coming off an emotional win against an arch rival. They usually have a let down. Often, when they are big favorites they win but do not cover the spread.
5. Bad teams that don't know they're bad. Early in the season, everyone still (theoretically) has a chance at making the playoffs. Even a team that will end up going 4-12 can, because of a weak early schedule, get off to a 2-1 start. They start to think that they're better than they are. The Bookies and the betting public might think that too. That will distort the line, and maybe give you an advantage. Try to identify this situation, but be careful early in the year. Bad teams can be very tenacious when they still think they have a chance at a decent season. They often cover when they're an underdog, but sometimes fail to cover or even win when favored.
6. Bad teams that know they're bad. Later in the season when a team is say, 0-7, 2-9 or 3-11, and obviously going nowhere, they have a tendency to get discouraged and be poorly motivated. Especially if they have an injury or two to key players. When they play good teams, that are making a run at the playoffs the good team usually wins and covers. Teams that are going to the playoffs need the best possible record for playoff seeding, and so they are highly motivated to dominate bad teams.
And then there's trends. I take trends with a grain of salt. It doesn't matter that the Patriots have covered against a particular team four straight times at home coming off a bye if that situation hasn't occurred since 2011. Because that same team doesn't exist anymore. The way NFL free agency works, most teams are substantially different, except for a few skill players, from year to year.
And all teams go through offensive and defensive coordinators every few years, sometimes even head coaches. That means new schemes and new plays, even if many of the personnel has stayed the same. Usually, what a team did 5 years ago is going to have no real relevance as to what they could do today.
I will look back to what a team did against another team earlier in the year or last year, at the latest. And that's to look at the revenge or motivation factor. Other than that I don't really care.
One Trend that I do follow closely is turnovers. And by trend I mean who is winning the turnover battle this year. Last year usually doesn't count for much. Turnovers usually have a lot of randomness built into them during the course of a game. You could also call it luck, or a lack thereof.
It's overstating it to simply say that whoever wins the turnover battle in a big game usually wins. In the stock market they would call this a rearward looking indicator. I don't care if your team is 8-0, if your quarterback throws 4 interceptions in each of the next three games you're probably going to be 9-2, at best, afterwards.
And then there are injuries. You need to know when a team is healthy and when it's not, so looking at injury reports is part of the deal. You can easily access them through the internet, just do a Google search for a particular team and the word injuries. The team will have official injury reports, which go out nation-wide, but sometimes you get a little better Insight from the local beat reporter in the town that the team is based in. Usually the local reporter is a little more candid and accurate.
Here's a good tip : Some of the fantasy football podcasts and TV shows are actually the best source of intel when it comes to injuries. No fantasy football nerd wants to get caught starting someone on their squad who ends up not playing because of an injury.
So, that's about it. I will occasionally look at what one or two of the sports services is recommending as a good free pic, but I am usually able to identify the situations that I like on my own. Feel free to comment on what I posted here. If you have any other systems or tips, I would love to hear about them.
Take care, and good luck everybody.
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