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The top misplayed hand in blackjack

Today we're going to discuss what I consider to be the top misplayed hand by your average blackjack player. And that is a hard 12 versus dealers 3 for an up card.

A hard 12 is obviously not ever a good hand to get dealt, and whether you're playing single-deck, double deck or a shoe game the odds are against you. Your expected return for standing is negative 25% while you're expected return for hitting is negative 23%. Not a good situation either way, but if you're playing accurate basic strategy you really should hit. In the long run it will make a difference. A slight difference I know but a difference none the less.

However if you're counting cards, you might have a bit of an insight. If your true count is negative then you know that there are more small value and neutral value cards remaining in the deck or shoe then 10 value cards. At this point you should hit without hesitation.

Playing perfect basic strategy is all about the percentages and being consistent. You're not always going to win in this situation but you should still be using the mathematics of basic strategy to help you get any edge that you can.

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