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Showing posts from 2017

Betting parlays and round robins and more on home dogs

ln  the last post I introduced you to the concept of betting on home team underdogs, which can be very profitable for the amateur handicapper. I listed three real world examples in games that are taking place this week. Let's take a closer look at each game and how I think they should be played. The home dogs this week are the Bills +9 versus the Patriots, the Cardinals +6 versus the Rams and on Monday night the Bengals +7 vs the Steelers. The first thing I always like to do is look at the record of both teams against the spread in several different scenarios throughout the current season. This season, against the spread in the home dog scenario, Buffalo is 1-1,  Arizona is 2-1-1 and the Cincinnati Bengals have not played a game yet as a home dog.  Not a lot to chew on there, so to speak, but we still have to look at the visiting team record as a favorite on the road. Los Angeles is 1-1, New England is 3-1, and Pittsburgh is 2-3. Now I like to look at all of the teams ...

Home dogs - a winning opportunity?

One of the things a skilled handicapper should be on the lookout for is the home team  underdog. Especially when it's a division opponent. These games are automatic rivalries with a healthy portion of ill will usually thrown in. At this point in the season, the home dog is usually playing sub .500 ball and the favored team is usually headed for the playoffs. The home dog is motivated  by pride and/or professionalism to prove that they are better than their record indicates. And what better way to prove that than by kicking the ass of the division leader? So this week, we have some real doozies when it comes to games with home team underdogs facing a division opponent. Here is my analysis. Sunday starts with the Bills getting 9 points at home against the Patriots, who are tied with the Steelers for the best record in the conference. In a late game, the Cardinals are getting 7 points at home against the division-leading Rams. The week concludes with the Monday night game feat...

Blackjack (and baseball) update 10/21

After watching the Astros beat up on the Yankees last night (which netted me a nice $75) I decided to play a little blackjack at my favorite low limit tables. I had an interesting thing happen that I went to tell you about. I was on spot 5, just to the right of the third base player, who appeared to be a novice player. At one point he tucked a busted hand. This is when you bust, but tuck the hand under your bet like you didn't bust. The guy was a littler tipsy, but not really drunk, and he probably just counted wrong.  He had drawn a 3+3+7 while holding a 5 + 4 for a total of 22. What I found unusual is not that he tucked the busted hand, it happens from time to time, but that the dealer did not notify the Pit Boss when it happened. She just said something to the player and then continued on with the take and pay. This is the sign of a sloppy dealer. The reason that the Pit Boss gets notified about it is in case the player does the same thing with a different dealer. Having thi...

Show update! New podcast now available.

Just did a new radio show and podcast yesterday, my first show in over a month due to illness. The podcast is available here . Since I haven't been on the air since before the tragic Las Vegas shooting, I feel like I need to comment on what role surveillance and security would have played in the response to the active shooter in addition to how they would gather information about the shooters whereabouts and movements prior to the incident. So that's what this show is about. It will have to be a two-parter, with the second part airing next week. You can listen live on the internet here or locate the podcast later from the same link as above. The show airs on 1180 AM KCKQ in Reno, live on Tuesdays at 4:30 PM PST (-8 GMT).

The Secret of My Success

Okay, I've had a lot of people ask me what is the secret to my success. I'm off to a 5 and 0 start this year in NFL free picks, and this is not the first year that I've had pretty good success against the bookmakers. And by the way, every free pic that I release is a pic that I made a play on myself. I put my money where my mouth is. I've had several people ask me if I'm using some kind of a system, in the answer to that is no. What I'm using is called common sense. Let me explain. There are certain conditions in which I feel the betting line posted by oddsmakers gets distorted because of various factors. I like to identify where those conditions exist, and how they may have affected the line. Having done that I like to make plays where I feel there is a better than usual value to the pic that you make, whether you were laying points are getting points. When I take a favorite I like to play games where the line is "cheap", or where the favorite is n...

FYI

I had a comment from a reader on Google Plus who questioned why I hadn't had a podcast in the last 3 weeks, so here's an update on my medical conditions. Some of you may know that I am going through chemotherapy for leukemia. So that has compromised my immune system. About 3 weeks ago I got bronchitis real bad and while I am feeling better it is still hanging on. Plus it makes my voice sound like crap, so I haven't been doing the radio show or the podcast. Hopefully that will change this week. Thanks, Jim

Surveillance response to Las Vegas shooting.

I had a question comes my way about the recent , tragic shooting at the Mandalay Bay casino in Las Vegas. This person wanted some insight as to the response of security and surveillance during and immediately after such an incident. I figured that this subject may be of interest to many of you out there, so here is my response. First of all, here are some physical facts about surveillance cameras, security operations and surveillance operations at the larger casinos, both in Las Vegas and all around the world. Most casinos have two separate surveillance rooms. One of the rooms, is manned by surveillance personnel who are experts in all types of casino gaming and cheating. These are the people who actually watch the games, the money, the cashiers and count rooms, and do all the things that you think of as the "eye in the sky" doing. These surveillance agents will have access to every single camera on property. The other surveillance room will be manned by security personnel...

Blackjack results, Friday 9/16

I got a chance to play some Blackjack on Friday night at my favorite low limit Casino. Only had $50 on me, which is what I bought him with, so it's a good thing that it was a $2 minimum table. I usually make my base bet $5 but tonight I made it just $2. Played for about half an hour, and the dealer was very hot, at least at first. She ran everyone off at the table, except for me,  after about 10 minutes. I enjoy playing one-on-one versus the dealer, but it is a real quick way to get fingered as a card counter when you are the only one at the table. Because of this, I basically just flat bet one hand at $2. The count never went very high anyway, so I didn't feel too bad.  Walked away down $10. No big deal but one thing happened that I want to talk about. Towards the end of my play, I hit a 14 vs. a ten, and busted.  When I flipped the cards over and they (accidentally) landed on top of each other, so that you could only see the face of one of the cards (a four). Now th...

Show update September 12th 2017

I'm happy to report that we had a great show on Tuesday, yesterday, with noted gaming consultant Thomas Gallagher as our guest. The hour long show really flew by, and we didn't get to discuss as much with Mr. Gallagher as I wanted to. Here is a link to the podcast of the show. Mr. Gallagher made a special offer to anyone who emailed him saying that they heard him on the show, so listen to the podcast for his special offer then you can email him and get a special deal on his gaming manuals. Just copy and paste this link into your browser to go to the FTP page for downloads of all of the podcasts of Casino Confidential. ftp://shows.americamatters.us/Show/Casino%20Confidential/ Also, I want to remind everyone that I will be posting my NFL week 2 pic of the week on Friday. Have a great day everyone.

Blackjack update and show preview

Hi everyone. I've been sick so I haven't posted in a while. I have been feeling a little better the last couple of days so I will post a gambling update and a show preview for tomorrow Tuesday August 22nd. Remember Casino Confidential airs live in the Reno area at 4 p.m. on Tuesdays on 1180 AM KCKQ radio. You can also listen to it stream over the internet at americamatters.us or on the TuneIn Radio app. So tonight, Monday, I went to my favorite low limit blackjack tables, at an unnamed Casino in the city of Sparks. I played at a $3 minimum, single deck table, bought in for $50 and left with $20. Oh well, you can't win every time. I mostly flat bet $5 a hand, lost my first few hands and never got up at all. I was able to play for almost an hour on that $50. I never got into a high positive count or Ace rich deck where I felt like I could confidently increase my bet, so I didn't. I did  had a situation where I felt like varying from basic strategy involving a pair of ...

Show update

Had a great show today, basically  talking about what it takes to be a better blackjack player.  I will post the podcast link ASAP. I also want to tell  all my readers  about this great new discount travel card.   Register for Free for a $200 VIP Card good at selected hotels  and resorts worldwide.  Did I mention it's free ?   Go to www.gurufast.com/james

Great new show tomorrow!

I have a great new Casino Confidential show planned for tomorrow, Tuesday August 15th: Casino Gaming 101. Intro to the philosophy of gambling, an  uncommon, common sense approach. You WILL learn how to lose less and win more. Listen live in the Reno area on KCKQ 1180 AM AT 4PM Pacific. Streaming live at http://amm.streamon.fm at 2300 GMT. AND it's a Giveaway Tuesday! I will be giving away a free range pass for 2 to our terrific sponsor, Reno Guns and Range, to the first caller at 844-790-8255.

Gambling report, Thursday August 10th.

I've decided to start reporting on my wins and losses when I gamble here in Reno. Hopefully it will teach some of the newer players out there reading this blog about what it's like to live in Vegas or Reno and enjoy gambling from time to time. So today I went to a casino in Sparks Nevada, which I'm not going to name, and played a little blackjack. I like this casino cuz they have low limit tables usually a $2 or $3 minimum with a $200 max. I bought in for $200, half green half red; put the green in my pocket and sat at a full table playing in the third spot. My bet range was from $20 to $30 per hand. And of course I was counting and tracking Aces. This was a single deck game with a 3-2 payout on blackjack.  (I refused to play at a 6 to 5 game.) Because the table was full there were only two rounds of play before a new shuffle. I played for about half an hour and walked away $50 ahead. I would have had more but on my second to last hand I lost with two tens, when the dea...

The top misplayed hand in blackjack

Today we're going to discuss what I consider to be the top misplayed hand by your average blackjack player. And that is a hard 12 versus dealers 3 for an up card. A hard 12 is obviously not ever a good hand to get dealt, and whether you're playing single-deck, double deck or a shoe game the odds are against you. Your expected return for standing is negative 25% while you're expected return for hitting is negative 23%. Not a good situation either way, but if you're playing accurate basic strategy you really should hit. In the long run it will make a difference. A slight difference I know but a difference none the less. However if you're counting cards, you might have a bit of an insight. If your true count is negative then you know that there are more small value and neutral value cards remaining in the deck or shoe then 10 value cards. At this point you should hit without hesitation. Playing perfect basic strategy is all about the percentages and being consistent...

First show in the bag!

Today I had my first Casino confidential show on KCKQ 1180am in Reno Nevada. I will put a link to the FTP site where you can download it if you'd like to listen to it. Okay so maybe I'm not the most professional and Polished radio talk show host you've ever heard, but at least I'm trying. Bill Zender was an excellent first guest. He is a very professional and Polished speaker and knows more about casinos than most people have ever learned. Be sure and check out his website at www.BillZender.com to find out what he's up to, purchase some of his books, or see his YouTube videos. On a sad note, no-one called in to win our free giveaway prize. We were giving away range passes to Reno Guns and Range, located on Market Street in Reno Nevada right behind the Harley-Davidson dealership. Their phone number is 775-826-2626. We will try again next week to give away a couple of free passes. Are phone number for the giveaway is toll free 844-790 8255. Call Ian next Tuesday f...

New show!

I am pleased to announce that I finally have gotten my own show on 1180 AM radio station KCKQ in Reno Nevada. The name of the show is Casino Confidential, and it will be about all things having to do with casinos and gambling with an emphasis on technology, surveillance and blackjack. The show premieres this afternoon, Tuesday, August 8th at 4 p.m. Pacific time, which is 11 p.m. (2300) GMT. In the Reno area you can tune in to 1180 a.m., or you can listen live on the internet at http://amm.streamon.fm I'm especially excited to announce that my first guest will be world renown Casino consultant Bill Zenger. Bill and I will be discussing the recent blackjack exploits of professional poker player Phil Ivey, plus what Russian hackers have been up to with slot machines. I will post a link on this blog later once I have an FTP site setup to download previous episodes. I will also eventually have the show on Apple iTunes and on Podbean. We will also get into other table games, slot ma...

Eldorado casino remote

Just got done helping my fellow radio host, Rick Parr, do his show, "Talking Sports" live from Brew Brothers at the Eldorado casino in downtown Reno.  We broadcast live on 1180 AM KCKQ, and stream it on Tune-In Radio and at americamatters.us I also wanted to mention the great Blackjack tournament that the Eldorado has at their Casino. It’s called Blackjack Madness, and it's held every Thursday from 5 pm until 7:30 pm with 2 final tables and 8 winners. The Semi-Finals and Finals will take place at 8 pm and 8:30.  Located on the Eldorado Casino Floor, near Bar Centro.   It's a $1,750 Blackjack Tournament. For a $20 Buy-In, New Bronze and Silver  Members can buy into up to 5 rounds of play, including a semi-final and final round. While Gold, President and Chairman  Members receive limited free entry.  Chairman Members also get a free buffet! Stop by the Casino Promotions Center for complete details, or call 1-800-281-0524 or in Nevada (775) 78...

Update!

Hi everyone. I haven't been doing much blogging recently, because I've started being on the radio on 1180am kckq in Reno Nevada. But I will be back soon blogging and also podcasting. Stay tuned, as they say in radio land. And check out this link to the podcasting Factory that I am going to be associated with. https://www.gurufast.com/gurufast-announces-podcast-factory

Excellent video on how slot machines work... and how they get hacked!

This post is a reprint about a video on Youtube.  It's all about todays electronic slot machines, their random number generators and how cheats are hacking them!  Click here to watch it And click here to visit my Patreon page. If you enjoy my content, and would like to see more of it more often, please consider becoming a patron. I am also looking at expanding into audio and video podcasts if I can get enough donations. 

So what is a surveillance room like, anyway? (intro)

I got another good question last week, from a reader wanting to know what a surveillance room is like, how it is laid out and how it is staffed and run.  So here goes. I have worked in surveillance departments at six different casinos in the last 25 years. Some very small (300 slots, 6 blackjack tables) and some very big (3000 slots, 60-70 table games of all kinds). When I started in the early 90's it was all VCRs and not all cameras were recorded all the time. We used a lot of "multi-plexers" and "quad screens". A multi-plexer used one VCR to display and record up to 16 screens on one monitor. Since the VCR still records at 30 frames per second, that meant that if you did a review on any one of those 16 screens you would be looking at a "freeze frame" effect, where you only got 1.8 frames per second of the shot you were looking at. A quad would record all four screens at 30 fps, but the size of the picture on the screen was 1/4 (obviously) of the to...

Advantage play is not cheating.

This post is sponsored by Amazon Prime .  You can get a free 30 day trial of  by clicking  here . Speaking of Amazon, they have some great books about how to win at blackjack, craps, and other casino games. Click on this link:  Good books about Casino gambling And don't forget about my article, called " Sports Betting: Advanced middle techniques for college and pro football wagering ." It's all about a way to bet on sports with very little risk but high potential rewards. Click  here  to go to the eBay listing. It's only $4.99 plus fifty cents shipping.  Now on to this weeks topic.  This is a repost from a year or so ago, but it's still good info, if I do say so myself. Whenever I meet people and tell them what my profession has been for the last 25 years, I always come away with the feeling that they equate card counting and advantage play as cheating. It is not, of course, as most of the readers of this blog undoubtedly know. It is just...

Reader feedback

Greetings all, I have gotten some more recent (good) feedback from a reader who brought up some excellent questions that I would like to address here. The first observation is that most of my examples concern single deck games.  To that, I plead guilty. And I will do a better job of covering the double deck and shoe game. The reader also correctly pointed out that many of the rules that casinos use make card counting at double deck and shoe games not very effective. Rules such as double down only on 9, 10 or 11, and no double after split obviously increase the house advantage more than most counters care to accept.  Also, deck penetration can discourage counters as well. The last casino I worked for had the dealers on double deck games burn 24 cards at the top of deck. This keeps most serious counters from ever even sitting down at double deck games. For these reasons, I usually use single deck games as my examples, but will endeavor to use more multi deck examples in th...

The Truth about Tribal Gaming

I am not going to tell you how I know this, but I am sensing some blow back from certain segments of the gaming industry about what I am doing here. SO.... I am going to open up on that segment of the industry with both barrels.  I am going to reveal the dirty little secret about tribal gaming that none of them want the public to know.  This secret is a little outside the realm of blackjack and how surveillance watches it, so you will need to indulge me. So what's the secret? The "slot machines" in tribal casinos are ripping you off. Let me explain. In most corporate gaming locations in this country, like Nevada, Atlantic City and other jurisdictions where the casino is owned by a corporation and not an Indian Tribe, the slots machines work this way: Each slot machine is basically a desktop computer. It has its own CPU, and a memory chip called an EEPROM that run the game and display the graphics that you see on the screen. Each machine has its own built in random numbe...

Advanced methods of masking your play.

OK, here is how I would go about masking the fact that I am counting cards like a madman. Order a drink. At least it looks like a drink to surveillance. It can be a coke or club soda, of course, the camera cant tell the difference. It's not smell-o-vision. Engage the other people at the table. Laugh, smile, fist bump, high five and talk with the other players. Talk with the dealer. Flirt with the cocktail waitress. Be friendly, dont sit there stone faced with a 1000 yard stare watching each card as it is delivered or exposed.   Look away from the table once in a while. Especially if the cut card has come out or it is the last hand of a hand held game before the next shuffle. Try to appear relaxed and casual. By the way, you should never get caught off guard by a shuffle. Know the house rule, in this case, how deep the dealer should go in to the deck before shuffling. You dont want to put out a bet that is five or ten times your base bet, only to see the dealer start to s...

We interrupt this blog!

I was going to post more about count checks this week, but I got a question from a reader that i decided to answer instead. We'll get back to count checks next week. This readers question, request actually, is for me to outline what I do when I go out to play blackjack. And I will be happy to talk about that, with a couple of warnings. Even though I play baclkjack very seriously, I am not a professional player. There are very few people in the world that can legitimately lay claim to that title. But you can be a good player, maybe what the casino would call an advantage player, without being a professional. What separates a professional from everyone else, is usually the bankroll (which will be a small part of their total net worth) and the proper attitude. You have to have both, otherwise your betting decisions, along with your hit/stand decisions will be tempered by a fear of losing.  Your ability has to be top notch also, of course. You need incredible focus and observation...

How count checks are done, usually.....

This blog post is a reprint of one that I did about a year-and-a-half ago about count checks, and how they are usually done in a surveillance room. those of you who are new to my blog may not have read it yet, so enjoy And now a few words about count checks. Previously, I showed you some of the initial ways that surveillance will use to canalize your play at blackjack table.  Sometimes a lazy observer will just go with that, especially if you are being obvious. Like going from one hand at $25 to three at $500. They'll just call the pit boss or casino manager and let them know what "Captain Obvious" is up to on BJ 6.  You will then be asked to stop playing blackjack and try your luck at Keno or slots. Or Let it Ride. However, if a player is not being that obvious, an observer will initiate a count check. This involves using a PTZ to get a bet shot so they can tell exactly how much you are betting each hand. Then they use a worksheet or scratch paper to monitor the count,...

Masking your play, the background - they're watching you.

Surveillance has cameras everywhere but they cant watch everything live.  When it comes to watcing card counters, most of the time surveillance will get initially notified by a pit supervisor, either about a player who is winning a lot, or one that is doing something overt, like varying his bet from, lets say, one hand at $25 to three hands at $500.  Only then will someone start to do a count check on you. To do a count check, an observer will use at least two, and probably three cameras. Each table has a fixed shot that shows the entire table and tray.Then they will use a PTZ (pan, tilt and zoom) camera to zoom in on your bet shot. Finally, either a fixed overview of the pit, or another PTZ camera will be used to watch the entire table.  This shot is used to identify all players, any indications of group play or signalling, possible collusion between the dealer and player, or between two players seated at different tables.   Some words about cameras: Most of the...