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NFL Week 1 five-star free pick.

Okay here it is, my first 5-star free NFL pick of the week, for the season.  My pick is the Green Bay Packers - 7 at home versus the Chicago Bears. I also picked the Packers in my free 3 team parlay for this week, and normally I would not double up and choose them here. however, there really isn't another game on the schedule in week one that I like this more than this one, so I'm betting it.  Here is my analysis.

You might think Chicago will be on a roll having just picked up Khalil Mack in a blockbuster trade, and that that might give them an advantage against Green Bay. Media sources however, say that Mack will be on a "pitch count", and only play 20 to 25 snaps, so he might not make that much of a difference. Chicago has a good defense, even without him, but I think it's being overrated by the betting public. This game opened at - 8, but is down to a seven point spread as of Saturday morning.

Green Bay, meanwhile, is coming off a 7-9 season where they failed to make the playoffs, due to Aaron Rodgers being injured. They will be highly motivated to get off to a good start, especially at home. Green Bay is desperate to get to another Superbowl with Rogers. In his career, Rogers is 15 - 4 versus the Bears with over 40 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. If anyone knows how to beat the Bears it's Aaron Rodgers. Take the Packers - 7.


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