As summer turns to fall, a young man's fancy turns to football. And Old Men too, BTW. So let's talk about the upcoming pro and college football seasons and get ready to try and make some money.
My first rule about pro football, is to not ever bet on preseason games. Preseason football is not real football. It's really just a glorified scrimmage and mostly used by teams to evaluate incoming players, whether they be free agent signings or draft picks.
They also want to evaluate the players that are carried over from the previous year and compare them to the newcomers. The first string players rarely play more than just the first quarter or two, and then spend the rest of the time on the bench not getting injured
All this should not come as a shock to anyone. So don't ever bet on preseason football, OK?
That's not to say that the preseason is not an important time of the year. I like to pick out several teams that I'm going to keep a very close eye on throughout the year and follow them through the preseason process to see what they're doing new and how successful they are it.
There are preseason and regular-season parts to college football as well. The preseason is the first two or three games that team plays every year. The regular season is their conference schedule where they play teams in their conference, and their success doing that will determine whether or not they go to a bowl game.
In their pre-conference games, most good programs like to schedule at least one or two patsy's to beat up on at the beginning of the season, usually at home. These are the games where the spread is somewhere around 30 or 40 points. These can be very profitable, if you know which ones to land on. We'll get to that in subsequent posts
Back to pro football, this is the time of year when you need to be evaluating both teams and betting services. Whether or not you spend money on a betting service is entirely up to you, and if you're not a serious $300 or $400 a week player you probably shouldn't.
But you can still evaluate them especially since all of these services usually give away at least one or two free picks each week, either through podcasts or blogs. Check out their intel and analysis of each game, and how it stacks up to the results. Find a service that you like and start using them during the regular season
I follow a service that you can find on Twitter as @spreadinvestor and he brought up some situational betting tips in a tweet that I want to talk about In this recent tweet he said that situational betting in the NFL trumps talent in a lot of games and I agree with him. Here are some situational bets to watch for each week:
1-letdown games
2-look-ahead games
3-long travel situations
4-extra (or short) rest
5-complacency/comfortable leads in the standings
6-coaches playing their old teams
I love situational handicapping. If you do it right, you can catch the bookies off guard and get some value bets. I will be highlighting these as I make my picks throughout the year, which I will here on my blog every week. Hopefully we can all make some money this year.
That's all for now, good luck everybody be
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