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College football Week 1 pick

Well it's finally here. This week marks the opening of the college football season for 2018. Let's get things off on the right foot with a win. Being on the West Coast I spent a lot of time watching Pac-12 football, and I also watch a lot of the Mountain West, as I live in Reno. So my pic this week involves teams from each conference, USC vs UNLV. 

This game opened with USC favored by 31 points, the number is down to 26.5 as I write this on Thursday morning. Good for you if you got it at 31 points because I think the Running Rebels are going to cover. Here is my analysis:

The Trojans have the firepower to win the game out right, no serious doubt about that. However they had to replace some key people on offense due to graduations and they are starting a true freshman at quarterback. Also they might be looking ahead to next week, where they have a huge early-season Pac-12 showdown with Stanford. 

UNLV, meanwhile, would love to get off to a good start this year against a high-profile opponent on the road. Seven starters are back on an offense that averaged 427 yards per game last year, led by sophomore quarterback Armani Rogers, senior running back Lexington Thomas (1,336 yards rushing last year, 17 touchdowns). Thomas is the real deal, you're going to see him playing on Sundays for many years to come. They also return three offensive linemen and  seven starters on defense, led by four of last year's top five tacklers.

Some betting trends that may impact: 

USC is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite.

UNLV is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog.

UNLV is 0-4 SU but 3-1 ATS in four games against Power 5 opponents under head coach Tony Sanchez.

The smart money here takes the points with the Rebels. Good luck everybody.

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