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I came across this article online and wanted to pass it on to you here.
Lucky Idiots' May Be Bigger Casino Threat Than Card-counters
Casino bosses who agonize about blackjack card-counters might be focusing on the wrong type of advantage player, a top gambling mathematician says.
Instead, they should look closer at the “lucky idiot” who repeatedly plays poorly yet amasses huge winnings, says Eliot Jacobson, owner and president of Jacobson Gaming and operator of www.apheat.net , which analyzes casino games, side bets and methods of advantage play.
That “lucky idiot” might be part of a team using advantage-play techniques that are more profitable than card-counting and more difficult for casino supervisors to identify, Jacobson says.
In general, advantage play involves methods that give players, not the house, an edge in a casino game.
Jacobson emphasizes that card-counting and most other advantage-play techniques are legal. Casinos try to minimize advantage play to protect their profit.
In a typical blackjack game, a skilled counter with a $100 maximum bet can make $22 an hour, says Jacobson, a former advantage player who says he gave it up because he couldn't stomach the large bets and time commitment required to be successful. In contrast, the advantage play known as edge-sorting can yield $200 to $2,000 per hour with a $100 maximum bet, Jacobson says.
He outlined common advantage-play methods and ways for casinos to reduce the threat in a webinar sponsored by CDC Gaming Seminars and aimed at casino executives. (Disclosure: I am a contributing writer for CDC Gaming Reports).
Advantage-play techniques frequently involve team play, in which a “spotter” plays near the table minimum and signals information to the “Big Player,” who often sits in the middle of the table and makes large bets.
Hole-carding
Players who use hole-carding look for a dealer who inadvertently flashes the down card, even for a milli-second. The spotter signals the hole card value to the Big Player, who then adjusts his play as needed. For example, the dealer's up-card might be a 10, but the spotter at third base saw that the down-card is a 4, giving the dealer a total of 14. If the Big Player has a two-card total of 12 through 16, he'll stand rather than taking a hit as basic strategy advises when the dealer shows a 10. The “lucky idiot” wins a big bet when the dealer busts.
Jacobson says the spotter can give the signal through chip placement, a verbal cue or many other ways.
In some cases, a team might take every seat at the table and use subtle moves that make it difficult for a dealer to keep the hole card hidden. For example, all the players might push their bets as far forward as possible, giving the dealer less room to maneuver. Having to lift the hole card over the standard peeking device in front of the dealer might be enough to expose it to the spotter. Dealers with long fingernails might be vulnerable to flashing the hole card.
Hole-carders can target many games besides blackjack.
Edge sorting
Pro poker player Phil Ivey brought this technique into the public eye by acknowledging in a lawsuit that he used it to win more than $12 million at baccarat in a British casino. Edge sorters take advantage of design flaws on the backs of cards. For example, lines of circles might end with a full circle on one edge and a half-circle on the opposite edge. By turning the cards so Aces and faces have the full circles on the top edge and low cards have the full circles are on the bottom edge, sorters can tell what type will be dealt next. Knowing the first card to be dealt is an Ace or 10-value card gives a blackjack player a 21 percent advantage, Jacobson says.
In blackjack, edge sorters usually target double-deck games, where players handle the cards. Three Card Poker is the second-most popular game for edge sorters, Jacobson says.
Ace sequencing
This is one of several techniques used to identify the location of cards after a shuffle. Ace sequencing involves memorizing two or three cards that are put into the discard tray on top of one or more Aces. Especially with a hand shuffle, those “key cards” are likely to remain near the Ace, and the sequencer can bet more when the key cards come out.
“These advance plays are … very hard to detect even if you see the person doing it right in front of you,” Jacobson says.
He cites shuffling methods and other procedures casinos can use to stymie advantage players but cautions that identifying advantage players is difficult because so many people play blackjack badly.
“A lot of people make crazy bets and play in crazy ways,” Jacobson says. “Players seem to be getting even worse at the game over time.” Game supervisors see so many bad blackjack moves that “it's hard to pick out the particular bad play that corresponds to some type of advantage play.”
This article is by Mark Gruetze, the Tribune-Review's gambling columnist. Reach him at players@tribweb.com .
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